Comparing the Recent ICM and YouGov Polls in Wales

The new Welsh Political Barometer poll is the second to be published in just over a fortnight. Outside of the 2017 general election, I can’t ever recall having two Welsh polls published in such short succession. Verily doth our cup runneth over…

The two polls have been conducted by two of the most widely-respected polling agencies in the UK. However, they were conducted by very different polling methods. YouGov, as regular readers of this blog will be now be very familiar with, draw samples from their large panel who are ‘interviewed’ via the internet. ICM are among the other companies that have moved into internet polling in recent years. But for this year’s BBC Wales poll, as with previous polls the company has done for BBC Wales, ICM used the somewhat more traditional method of telephone interviewing.

There have been many discussions of the relative merits, and potential problems, of both internet and telephone polling. I am not going to rehearse those arguments here: I have discussed them at various points on the blog previously. My concern in this blog post is simply to see whether there are any significant differences in the picture of current Welsh politics that the two polls have given us. Both asked about voting intention for both Westminster and the National Assembly: we can therefore directly compare these results.

Full piece with tables here